We’re in for yet another great weekend of fights. Oliveira vs. Poirier promises to be exciting, Nunes should put on another incredible performance, and the rest of the UFC card is very strong. In boxing there are multiple good cards, my personal favorite being the Top Rank card headlined by Vasyl Lomachenko and Richard Commey. Check out BoxRec for the full schedule this weekend.
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
It’s unfortunate that this is the free fight that UFC gave us for Charles Oliveira. It makes sense, since it’s where he won the title, it’s his most recent fight, and it was a ton of fun, but it gives those of us looking back on it ahead of UFC 269 very little to analyze.
Round 1: Chandler
Though Oliveira had his moments in the first Chandler was the clear winner. He had a tight guillotine (that commentary seemed to think would end the fight) and controlled most of the time spent on the canvas. Chandler held significant strike advantages of eleven to seven on the feet and seventeen to three on the ground. It looked like he may finish him toward the end of the round, when Oliveira was on all fours and Chandler was landing cleanly, but Oliveira was able to defend enough to survive.
Round 2: Oliveira
Almost immediately in the second round Oliveira blitzed Chandler, landing clean strikes, downing him, and finishing him. There’s not much to say beyond that.
One thing worth noting is that Oliveira didn’t throw leg kicks often but was an efficient three-for-three. With his lack of experience in later rounds it’s worth wondering about how his cardio will look in this one, especially against a guy like Poirier. Attacking the legs early and often will be a great way to slow Poirier down.
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Oliveira’s “free fight” fight may have been short, but Poirier’s makes up for it. This is one of the best UFC fights I’ve seen, pure action from start to finish. It does take place almost exclusively on the feet, which doesn’t make the ideal analysis ahead of a fight with Oliveira, who is one of the better grapplers under the UFC banner.
Round 1: Poirier
Both fighters opened up with some good action. Each had success and was able to cause some early damage, but neither was hurt badly. Max recovered quickly from his damage, meanwhile Poirier looked stunned but never truly in trouble.
Round 2: Poirier
Max was getting some good work in, but he was not hurting Poirier much. out-boxing and out-pointing him. Poirier lands big shots with some monster shots in the last minute.
Round 3: Poirier
All three judges and most in the media had Holloway winning the third, and for good reason, as it was his most successful round of the fight. He did out-land Poirier, but Poirier’s shots had so much more on them; every single shot he landed in the round went down as a significant strike. Max looked great, particularly toward the end of the round, and was touching Poirier up. His boxing was beautiful, but there just wasn’t enough power behind his punches. I would give this round to Poirier despite him being out-landed sixty-one to thirty-three. I re-watched the round to see if I’d missed something that made people so overwhelmingly give this round to Max Holloway; I’m certainly not surprised that a lot of people did, but to me it was a close round that Poirier won.
Round 4: Poirier
After multiple attempts in the first few rounds Poirier finally got a takedown to break up the boxing match in the fourth but wasn’t able to do a whole lot with it. Holloway was able to build some with Poirier slowing down a bit, but without a ton of convincing action for the remainder of the devastating knee Poirier landed late sealed the round in his favor. Holloway’s attempt at a d’arce choke right as the round ended looked like it might have been successful had he not waited until there were just a few seconds left on the clock.
Round 5: Poirier
The excitement before the fifth as Max got off the stool was awesome, you could tell both of these guys just love to fight. The final round didn’t have too much different from what happened in the first four rounds; Holloway was able to land successfully but without much power, while Poirier was able to deal significant damage. Poirier utilized the opportunity to land on Max’s bloodied face to maximize optics in his favor. At the end Poirier did take his foot off the gas and pin Holloway to the cage to win some control time and ultimately the fight.
Fight Predictions
It really sucks that one of these guys has to lose. Dustin is a great guy and has been so much fun to watch over the years. Oliveira is a true underdog story, taking 28 UFC fights to get a chance at the title and making the most of his opportunity. The way he ran around holding the belt makes me hope he never loses it, but I also want to see Dustin finally get the actual belt rather than an interim championship.
The entire lightweight division is incredibly volatile. If each of Oliveira, Chandler, Gaethje, Poirier, Dariush, and Makhachev fought all the others I think they all win at least two and at most four fights. This division is the epitome of “styles make fights” and it’s hard to predict all of the top guys’ fights as a result. That said, I expect Poirier to dominate this one on the feet. Oliveira is a glass cannon. He can deal damage, but he’s relatively fragile (by the standards of an elite fighter.) Holloway is a tough guy; I believe if Poirier is able to land on Oliveira the same way he was on Holloway (which I expect him to, because I believe more in Holloway’s standup game than Oliveira’s) he’ll be able to damage him. Once he does, however, he has to be careful not to get taken down by a desperate Oliveira. If so, the tides could turn quickly. As mentioned above, Oliveira is one of the best grapplers in UFC and Poirier would be wise to keep this on the feet.
For his part, Oliveira needs to be careful not to get reckless on the ground. Though his grappling is better than Poirier’s overall, he does have holes in his defensive wrestling and Poirier is competent on the ground. As a result this probably ends in the dumbest way possible, something like a Poirier submission. But I’ll go ahead and pick what I think is the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier via TKO, likely in the early rounds.
The rest of the weekend
Lomachenko vs. Commey: In what’s looking more and more like one of the deepest divisions in boxing Vasyl Lomachenko (15-2) and Richard Commey (30-3) fight to regain relevance in the title picture. Lomachenko is likely the greatest amateur boxer of all time with a record of 396-1, but he fell from top three pound-for-pound status after a decision loss to Teofimo Lopez in 2020. Commey, who also lost to Lopez in December 2019, is a significant underdog. He’ll need to utilize his size and power if he hopes to pull off the upset, as Lomachenko is a relatively small lightweight. I think Lomachenko would be best served to go back down a class because his size disadvantage has been apparent in some of his more recent fights. That said, his talent should be enough to overcome Commey. I hope to be wrong, as I’m a fan of Commey, but I see Lomachenko winning a competitive fight that isn’t particularly close.
Prediction: Lomachenko wins a unanimous decision.
Other predictions:
Amanda Nunes via KO/TKO.
Geoff Neal by KO/TKO.
Cody Garbrandt via decision.
Sean O’Malley via decision.
Dmitry Bivol via decision.
Jared Anderson via KO/TKO in rounds 4-6.
Nonito Donaire via decision.