Friday Film Review: Volume I
Usman vs. Covington 2 breakdown and other predictions ahead of a great week of fights.
I wasn’t able to fully watch UFC 267 or the boxing card last week, so unfortunately I was not able to justify recapping what I’d only been able to half-watch. As a result, I wanted to do an in-depth breakdown of the first Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington fight ahead of their rematch. I also included predictions for the Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant fight and the rest of the main card of UFC 268.
The full fight can be viewed below, and occasional references are made to the Usman vs. Burns fight, which is not freely available. Highlights can be seen here.
Round 1: Covington
Colby started by throwing the kitchen sink at Usman. His punches were primarily looping hooks and he added some kicks and knees for good measure. Usman looked like he might have been stung a couple times but overall didn’t seem too affected. In the first round and throughout the fight it was obvious Covington doesn’t have the one-shot power to hurt Usman quite like Gilbert Burns was able to.
When Usman did get stung he tried to clinch, which Colby was able to escape relatively easily. After a few attempts early Usman didn’t pursue clinch fighting much for the remainder of the fight.
For his part, Usman was collected and had a very basic approach to the fight. That’s not to say that his strategy was bad, it was just very straightforward and focused on fundamentals. The vast majority of his strikes were jabs or straights and he saw great success with them. Covington was there to be hit and Usman just picked his spots.
There were a couple times (both in the first and throughout the fight) that Usman went southpaw. Though, as pointed out by commentary, Usman was able to effectively use his jab in southpaw, he also seemed a lot more hittable. Colby seemed to find more sustained success against Usman when he was in the southpaw stance, and connected longer combinations.
Round 2: Covington
Usman was momentarily off balance after Colby threw a left hook that connected, then ducked down right into a right hook from the challenger. Usman was very briefly wobbled before an incredibly quick recovery. This seemed to be a theme throughout the fight: Covington’s most successful punches were primarily right hooks that would either buzz or momentarily hurt Kamaru, but Usman’s ability to recover quickly is incredible.
After the first fight and leading up to this one Usman received some criticism of how he dealt with the low blow, with some fans arguing it didn’t hit. Based on the angles shown on the broadcast it seems the majority of the shot hit the groin area rather than landing flush on the cup. However, a few of Colby’s toes appear to curl in a way that suggests that they did make contact and glanced off. Either way it hit in a manner that could have pushed the cup into a position to cause pain to Usman below the belt. All told, it took only 33 seconds from the moment Covington’s foot lands to the moment Usman affirms to the referee that he is ready to continue. He didn’t take much time at all. I completely believe this to be a non-issue.
Round 3: Usman
The third round was relatively unremarkable. There was a lot of the same, with Usman beginning to build more and Covington’s output dropping.
The eye poke was also legitimate. Though the replay indicates that Covington probably got a lot of finger into Usman’s left eye he was seemingly more concerned about his right. Covington mentioned this leading up to the fight, but the angle on the broadcast makes it difficult to tell whether Covington’s hand connected with both eyes. It’s entirely possible, given how splayed his fingers were coming in.
Usman did connect with a massive right hand that likely broke Covington’s jaw; in the corner at the end of the round he told his team that he thought it was broken and photos that were allegedly of Covington’s jaw later surfaced showing a fracture, despite Colby denying that it was him.
Skip to 20:32 to see the replay of the shot that likely broke Covington’s jaw.
Round 4: Usman
Both fighters started to calm down a bit in the fourth before Covington unleashed a wild flurry about thirty seconds into the round. Just shy of the two minute mark Covington landed another right that made Usman look unsteady for just a split second before yet another near-instantaneous recovery. Usman continued to calmly pick apart Covington with his straightforward approach, landing primarily 1-2s with a handful of hooks, uppercuts, and front kicks thrown in to mix it up a bit.
One thing worth noting was that before the fourth round Covington’s corner wanted him to wrestle a bit. Both Covington and Usman are very accomplished college wrestlers, being named all-Americans at the Division I and Division II level, respectively. As a result, many in the MMA world expected that they figured their wrestling would be a wash and the fight would play out as it did, on the feet. Covington’s corner didn’t get its wish, however, as he did not so much as attempt a takedown in the championship rounds.
Round 5: Usman
Usman continued to build on his success and Covington’s gradual decline in the fifth and final round. Covington did see brief success here and there, but Usman was firmly in control even before the pair of knockdowns. After the second knockdown Covington was not intelligently defending himself, but did start to right before the referee called a stop to the contest. It wasn’t a bad stoppage, and based on the cards Usman would have won the fight had it gone to a decision, (barring some catastrophic collapse in the final fifty seconds) but it may have been just a bit early.
Rematch Predictions
Before re-watching the first fight I expected Usman to win but saw the fight being very close. After watching it over, I’m more confident that Usman wins and think it will likely be by KO. Since taking on trainer Trevor Wittman prior to his fight with former teammate Gilbert Burns, Usman’s power seems to be significantly improved, particularly with the simple 1-2 combinations. Given the 1-2 was already his bread and butter against Covington, I anticipate his improvement there to carry him against Covington, who was willing to stand in the pocket and trade shots. He has looked sloppy at times, as it seems he’s fallen in love with his newfound power, but I don’t think it will be a significant issue.
For Covington’s part, he’s only taken one fight in the interim, a lopsided win over a fading Tyron Woodley, so it’s hard to evaluate what aspects of his game he may have had the opportunity to improve. It will be interesting to see if his team can get him to wrestle this time, and whether that will play a significant role in the fight. As mentioned, Usman is a very capable wrestler in his own right, and he does have potentially the very best takedown defense in MMA.
One thing I did notice was that the majority of the shots that hurt Usman, even if only briefly, were lead right hooks. In the Burns fight this was also true (though Burns is orthodox, so his right hooks were rear hooks.) This may be an opportunity for Covington, but with Usman’s ability to recover and Colby not having one-shot power, it may be to no avail. Another potential opening for Covington is uppercuts. Many of the times Usman was briefly hurt came after he ducked. If Covington times an uppercut perfectly as Usman ducks into it, it could be dangerous for the champ.
Prediction: Usman wins by KO/TKO in rounds 3-5.
The rest of the weekend
Alvarez vs. Plant: Canelo Alvarez is the best male boxer in the world, pound for pound, and the only man close is Alexander Usyk. I don’t see Plant being able to do anything well enough to defeat Canelo. Plant is more powerful than he gets credit for, but I don’t see him being able to hurt Alvarez. Plant is also known as a slick boxer, but it’s due in large part to his upper body movement; his feet are actually relatively slow, and I anticipate the much shorter Alvarez will have an easy time ripping shots to the body. Plant also tends to slow down toward the end of fights, which is not ideal when facing Alvarez. Canelo wins by late KO/TKO, body shots play a very significant role.
Namajunas vs. Zhang II: Though this is a rematch it’s hard to say we learned much of anything from the quick knockout the first time these women met. Rose Namajunas was able to get a head kick KO that Zhang seemed to expect would be coming low rather than high. As a result there isn’t much to say about this one that’s unique from the first fight, and it’s anyone’s game. I’m going to go with Zhang Weili by decision.
Gaethje vs. Chandler: This is going to be a war. Gaethje hasn’t fought since his submission loss to Khabib Nurmagamedov, and he did discuss retirement after that fight. If he’s not in the right headspace for this it could be a disaster for him, as Michael Chandler is a very capable striker and wrestler. However, I anticipate Gaethje wins a violent matchup and Chandler shoots for takedowns despite saying he wanted to keep this one on the feet. Gaethje by KO/TKO.
Thank you so much for reading. This is my first time doing a full-fight film breakdown, so if you have any thoughts, good or bad (though ideally constructive if bad!) I’d greatly appreciate it! Don’t forget to subscribe!