After an exciting weekend we seem left with more questions than answers: Is Pacquiao’s time at the top done? Is Ugas capable of another upset? What does the result mean for Keith Thurman? Does a Spence vs. Pacquiao fight still make sense? What’s next for Jared Cannonier? Ditto for Kelvin Gastelum?
Saturday saw one of the all-time greats take the ring as Manny Pacquiao (62-8-2) lost a unanimous decision to Yordenis Ugas (27-4) after twelve rounds. Though this was neither the first time Pacquiao has lost nor the most devastating ending, it could have been the last.
The fight started with a lot of excitement. Pacquiao was coming forward with a frequent (albeit relatively ineffective) jab while Ugas timed exchanges in favor of a few good shots per round. After the fourth round, however, Pacquiao’s effectiveness dropped significantly. Ugas, as the bigger man, was able to control distance in a way not many Pacquiao opponents have been able to. As a result, Pacquiao resorted to rushing in behind a jab or feint, throwing a flurry, and retreating.
As the fight wore on this strategy was less and less effective for Pacquiao, who landed just 9% of his jabs and 26% of his power punches. In contrast, Ugas became more effective the longer the fight went on; with each attempt by Pacquiao to swarm, Ugas was able to become more confident in his timing of counters. This resulted in the majority of exchanges ending with Ugas getting the better of Pacquiao. Manny didn’t help himself much with adjustments. He utilized the same strategy that worked for him for much of his career, but his jab didn’t connect and his feints were not effective, as former Ugas opponent Shawn Porter pointed out on the broadcast. Ugas wasn’t biting and there was never much to be scared of, as Pacquiao wasn’t putting effective combos behind the feint. Pacquiao had a brief second wind in the eleventh round but didn’t secure a the knockdowns or knockout that would’ve been needed to sway the fight in his favor.
Was this the last of Pacquiao?
Despite the loss, Manny Pacquiao showed that he is still one of the top welterweights in the world and belongs in the ring with the likes of Ugas, Porter, Thurman, Spence, and Crawford. Unfortunately for Manny, however, he didn’t seem like he would have a good chance at winning a fight with either of the biggest names in the division, Spence and Crawford. At 42 years old Pacquiao is old, especially for a fighter his size, and there are only a handful of options that make sense if he wants to continue fighting.
The Rematch: A second fight with Ugas is a must-win fight for Pacquiao. He did show flashes, especially early, of his old self. It’s entirely possible he’s able to get some knockdowns or even a knockout, but he’ll have to capitalize on the limited windows of opportunity he created. If he loses, however, which seems like the more likely outcome, it’ll be a retirement fight for Pacquiao. In the post-fight press conference Ugas said Manny deserves a rematch if he wants one, so this option is open.
A Thurman Rematch: Likely the least likely option (and for good reason) Pacquiao has little to gain from beating Thurman again. Based on how close the initial fight was (Pacquiao winning early and getting a knockdown, Thurman cleaning up most of the second half of the fight) an older Pacquiao likely loses this fight too. High risk, low reward.
Fighting Spence: This was the original bout that was supposed to go down on Saturday, so it only makes sense that they’d both still want it. Despite depreciation in Pacquiao’s value it does still make a lot of financial sense. Spence is a budding PPV star and Pacquiao is one of the biggest draws of all time. This fight would make a lot of money, Manny could dare to be great one last time, but will likely fall short. Spence’s timing and power is better than Ugas’ and this would potentially be a devastating knockout. If he doesn’t want to go right into this fight (or Spence is otherwise occupied) he can take a soft touch tune-up with a guy he’d definitively beat to drum up excitement in the interim.
Retire: Pacquiao is one of the sport’s all-time greats and has secured generational wealth. He can retire and do whatever he wants, whether it be training, promoting, or running for president.
How about Ugas?
As mentioned above, Ugas is open to the rematch. He’s not dumb, he saw the money he got for this fight, saw how comfortably he won it, and figured doubling it can’t hurt. He’d likely win the rematch with a nice payday en route to a unification fight.
The more likely route, however, is a Spence fight. Ugas can capitalize on some of the shine from his Pacquiao victory to maximize the appeal of this fight. The sooner the better, while his triumph is still fresh in fans’ minds. The main issues are that Spence could be drawn away by the higher purse he’ll get for a potential Pacquiao fight, though it seems unlikely, and is recovering from an eye injury, which is why Ugas was able to fight Pacquiao in the first place. Time will tell, but unification seems likely.
Other Notable Results
Boxing
Carlos Castro defeats Oscar Escandon (KO 9)
Robert Guerrero defeats Victor Ortiz (UD)
MMA
Jared Cannonier defeats Kelvin Gastelum (UD)
Mark Madsen defeats Clay Guida (SD)
Alistair Overeem will fight GLORY heavyweight champion in a kickboxing match in October 2022 in the Netherlands.
Lightweight UFC champion Charles Oliveira is the most recent MMA fighter to entertain the idea of a boxing match, reportedly interested in testing himself and the accompanying payday.
Jared Cannonier wants either the title shot or a top-ranked contender in his next bout. With the majority of the top fighters tied up already Jack Hermansson looks like the only viable opponent for Cannonier to face if he’s wanting to fight again in the coming months.
Kelvin Gastelum lost the fifth of his last six, leaving him floundering in the division.
Conor McGregor wants to get back into boxing and train with Eddy Reynoso, whose star pupil is pound-for-pound king Canelo Alvarez.
Crawford vs. Spence moves to purse bid.
Boxing
Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley, Sunday 8/29, 8:00 PM EST
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MMA
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze, Saturday 8/28, 10:00 PM
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