Volume X: Pound for Pound
Inoue catapulted himself to the top, but for how long? Plus, UFC 291 preview.
It’s not even the weekend, but we’ve already had a great fight week. Naoya Inoue showed why he’s the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, but with Errol Spence and Terence Crawford meeting on Saturday, his reign as P4P king might be short-lived; an impressive performance could catapult the winner to the top. Additionally, the UFC is returning to Salt Lake City. Fights at elevation mean less oxygen available, exhaustion setting in faster, and an environment ripe for finishes.
If you didn’t get up early for the fight between Naoya Inoue (25-0, 22 KOs) and Stephen Fulton (21-1, 8 KOs), you missed out. If you have ESPN+, it’s definitely worth the watch.
Inoue put on a masterclass, plain and simple. He came at Fulton from all sorts of different angles and landed clean shots offensively. Fulton, a boxer whose greatest strength is his defense, looked lost. He was no match for Inoue multi-faceted attack. When Fulton was throwing, Inoue was largely able to slip with ease, at times even making Fulton look silly. There unfortunately isn’t much to say beyond the obvious: Inoue was able to jump up a weight class and make the best fighter in the division look amateurish.
Hopefully this is a star-making performance for Inoue. Despite his impressive resume, he hasn’t gotten the same attention many of his peers have received. This is in large part because many of his fights have been in Japan, which means they’re at bad times for American fans, and usually on weekdays. Additionally, many of his opponents were not well-known to the casual fan, not because they weren’t skilled, but because his whole career has been at or below 122 pounds, divisions that American fans largely ignore. Despite this fight also being a Tuesday morning, it seems it reached a larger audience; hopefully it can boost his notoriety to a level commensurate with his skill.
Despite some fans’ sudden insistence that Inoue move up to fight Gervonta “Tank” Davis, it’d be a much better idea for Inoue to campaign at 122 pounds for at least a few fights. Davis probably isn’t able to cut down to 130 pounds, and even if he is, he probably wouldn’t want to, especially when lightweight (135) has flashier names and superb talent. Inoue jumping up to 135 seems equally unlikely; he’s already been a champion in four different divisions, going up three more after just one fight at 122 seems reckless. Maybe he’ll work his way up there eventually, but anyone who wants him to do so right now needs to pump the breaks.
At long last, it’s here. The fight that was a “done deal” on multiple occasions, the fight many fans had written off as a pipe dream, will finally occur, as Errol “The Truth” Spence (28-0, 22 KOs) and Terence “Bud” Crawford (39-0, 30 KOs) clash in a battle of unbeaten welterweights and pound-for-pound elites.
This matchup has “violence” written all over it. Both fighters are prolific finishers, as Crawford comes in on a ten-fight KO streak and Spence has finished twelve of his last fifteen opponents. At risk of sounding hyperbolic, this has a chance to be the best fight since Hagler vs. Hearns.
Terence Crawford is an insanely talented fighter with a predator’s killer instinct. He has a phenomenal uppercut and is a strong counterpuncher, two skills that pair well together. In his fight with Shawn Porter, we were able to see this on full display; Porter repeatedly pursued a leaping lead hook, an incredible opportunity for the uppercut counter from Crawford. After the ninth round, Crawford’s trainer lets him know that he’s probably behind on the scorecards. Though inaudible, it seems like Crawford says “He’s up? Okay.” Fifteen seconds later, he knocks Porter down with an uppercut. The kill switch had been flipped. After another minute of unleashing hell, he gets a second knockdown, prompting Porter’s trainer/father Kenny Porter to throw in the towel.
Despite his fantastic skill, Crawford does have a potentially fatal flaw. He starts slow. Really slow. It often seems intentional, as if he’s feeling out the opponent (or as the commentary team loves to say, “downloading information”). Typically this isn’t a problem, as his normal opponent isn’t able to compete with him in the later rounds. Crawford is able to give away a couple of the early rounds and turn it up in the second half to get the finish.
Unfortunately for Crawford, Spence isn’t a normal opponent. If he allows Errol Spence to win three of the first four rounds, Crawford would have to win six of the remaining nine to win a decision, which won’t be an easy task against Spence. He’ll likely have to either start faster than normal or hurt Spence, either getting a knockdown to gain some ground on the scorecards, or a knockout to avoid the judges entirely. He has the skill and the power, but he could be his own worst enemy if a slow start costs him the win.
Spence is no slouch either, having displayed skills that put him in most fans’ top five pound-for-pound. He fights well both coming forward and off the back foot, with balanced offense and defense. His forward aggression will be a tremendous asset in the first few rounds and should allow him to capitalize on Crawford’s slow start. It will make for an interesting dynamic later in the fight with Crawford’s counterpunching, as Spence will likely win the majority of each round, but leave the door open for Crawford to have the flashier moments.
Spence does, however, have a propensity to zone out in ways that haven’t cost him yet, but very well could this weekend. When exiting a clinch, Spence often forgets one of boxing’s most important rules, “protect yourself at all times.” In Spence’s own fight with Shawn Porter, he was caught a decent amount on clinch exits. He’ll be open for Crawford to land clean shots as they break, an area in which Crawford already excels. If Spence isn’t careful, a lackadaisical clinch exit could cost him the fight.
Perhaps the most obvious example of Spence’s carelessness is when his mouthpiece gets knocked out. Against both Yordenis Ugas and Danny Garcia, Spence had his mouthpiece knocked out and turned to find it before the ref stopped the action. Ugas nearly knocked him down before the ref intervened, Garcia jumped on the opportunity but was stopped by the bell ending the round. If Spence makes the same mistake against Crawford, it will be disastrous.
Ultimately, I think Crawford will need to hurt Spence to win this fight, something that is entirely possible. If he doesn’t, Spence will likely bank three of the first four rounds and win enough rounds down the stretch to scrape by for a close decision victory.
Prediction: Crawford by TKO 11.
“There is a championship buzz in this arena,” Jon Anik said back in 2018 ahead of the first fight between Dustin Poirier (29-7, 1NC) and Justin Gaethje (24-4). Five years later, those words ring (sort of) true. Poirier and Gaethje will meet for the second time, headlining UFC 291 in Salt Lake City. The pair will be vying for the UFC’s BMF (Baddest Motherf-cker) belt, after the reigning BMF, Jorge Masvidal, retired earlier this year. For those unfamiliar, the BMF title was introduced for Masvidal’s fight with Nate Diaz in 2019. As it’s a gimmick belt bestowed by the UFC, a fighter can’t win or lose it the same way they would a normal title. (Good news for Masvidal, as he went 0-4 in the four fights since winning it.) Instead, it’s the prize for two fighters the UFC deems to be deserving not based solely on their record, but instead on how they fight. Contenders for the BMF belt are exciting fighters and brutal finishers. Despite the BMF belt being essentially meaningless, this fight will likely secure the winner a shot at the actual lightweight title, as it’s a matchup between the second and third ranked contenders. On top of that, if this fight is anything like the first, it will be a ton of fun and a fight of the year contender.
I’ll briefly break down the first matchup between the pair, but you can watch the entire fight here:
Despite what the commentary team seemed to think, I felt that Poirier was winning this fight even before the knockout. He was controlling exchanges, largely entering and exiting range on his own terms. He was landing the harder, cleaner shots, and, in my opinion, clearly won the first two rounds. This paid off, as he was able to hurt Gaethje at the beginning of the fourth round. After pouring on strikes, Gaethje shelled up and referee Herb Dean waived off the fight.
On the flip side, Justin Gaethje was doing an incredible job of wearing down Poirier’s legs. By the third round, Poirier had slowed considerably and Gaethje definitely had the momentum. The commentary team seemed to think that this had won Gaethje at least two of the initial three rounds, but at the time of the stoppage, two of the judges had scored the contest 29-27 in favor of Poirier, the third scoring it 28-28.
UFC 291 Predictions
Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Since their first fight, neither man has changed their style too significantly, or at least not enough that I expect Saturday’s fight to play out in a dramatically different way. The biggest change is that Gaethje seems to be less proactive than he was back then. This could be trouble for Gaethje, as Poirier was already getting the better of the exchanges in the first fight. If Gaethje lets Poirier dictate the fight even more this time around, it’ll only be a matter of time before Poirier lands something devastating.
One key consideration is that the fight will be in Salt Lake City, Utah, which sits at nearly 4300 feet above sea level. In their first fight Poirier was gassing, but was given time to recover when Gaethje poked him in the eye for the second time. If not for that recovery time, this fight could have easily ended in Gaethje’s favor. If Gaethje relentlessly attacks Poirier’s legs again, but this time at altitude, Poirier could get winded quickly.
If this fight does go to the ground, Poirier has the advantage. Despite Gaethje’s background as a D-1 All-American wrestler, he almost never wants to go to the mat, and Poirier’s jiu-jitsu would likely out-compete Gaethje’s wrestling. In the first fight Poirier attempted three takedowns, none of which were well executed or successful. I imagine both guys will try to keep this on the feet, but there’s definitely a chance of a Poirier submission.
Prediction: Poirier by TKO 4 (again)
Jan Błachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
This fight, too, likely has title implications. The light heavyweight belt has had a weird run in the past year. After changing hands four times in three years, Jiri Prochazka was injured and vacated the title in November. Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev then fought to a draw with the vacant title on the line. As a result, neither man was crowned champion and Jamahal Hill defeated Glover Texeira to win the still-vacant title. Hill, in turn, got injured and vacated. (Confused yet?) Prochazka claims to be healthy and ready to fight soon, so many fans believe the winner of this will likely face off with Prochazka for the (once again) vacant title.
Blachowicz will be looking for a win and a shot at that title, which once belonged to him. In his way is former middleweight champion Alex Pereira, fighting for the first time at light heavyweight.
Each man has a clear advantage in one phase. Pereira is the more accomplished and dangerous striker, while Blachowicz has the superior ground game. Blachowicz has claimed he wants to keep the wrestling in his back pocket but would prefer to keep this fight standing. This feels like a mistake, as Pereira’s wrestling is entirely untested (though he has been training with jiu-jitsu specialist Glover Texeira, who defeated Jan by submission in 2021). I think that this one will ultimately play out as a win for Blachowicz if it goes to the ground, or for Pereira if they don’t. My only concern for Pereira’s striking is that he was brutally knocked out less than four months ago; it seems bold to jump a weight class and face a dangerous opponent with such a short turnaround.
Prediction: Jan Blachowicz by decision